The Paterson Pulse: Never Back A Horse With A Bad Rider On Board

“It’s just we know too much,” the seasoned, not embittered, punter philosophised as we shared the long end of an Aldi queue this week.

The discussion centred on recent results and winners we should have backed and didn’t. Maybe age, as in courage lost, and having experienced 100 ways a horse can be beaten and still trying played roles.

I make no excuse for being better 25 years ago at backing a winner than currently. Smaller stables, with habits and supporting punters, made it easier to define. There are too many at full throttle these days. Trainers race more for prizemoney and statistics rather than punting pelf.

Old theories could be followed, a percentage acceptable which is why a recent letter to the Winning Post, a publication that presents racing the way I like it, caught my eye. The letters are a must read.

“Amazing how many so-called expert form analysts constantly pick horse to win second up. Stats show that unless they are of Winx calibre the chance is 100/1.

“These experts quote times, barrier trials etc and yet don’t pick any more winners than me. Surely, they don’t get paid.” – Frog Barrett (Broken Hill). 

Once it was a strong rule to avoid a change second up but has this changed with different training methods? Well, Frog’s theory will be put to the test at Royal Randwick today.

For instance, In Flight, favourite for the ASX, has scored at three out of his last four starts, but beaten second up. In Flight takes on Flag Hall, who gives Lee Freedman, now based on the Gold Coast, a return to Randwick, once a happy hunting ground, after a long absence while another strong fancy and last start winner, Ballet E’Sprit, is prepared by his brother, Michael Freedman and having his second start after a spell.

Charming Legend, tuned by the outstanding developer of legends Les Bridge, is an intriguing second upper in the Midway after scoring at his debut despite being green and wayward. Still, he produced the fastest final 200 metres on the Kensington program.

Another promising type coming in the category, Don Diego De Vega, will be strongly fancied in the James Squire.

A French import with Annabel Neasham, the “Don” in his first Australian race was runner-up to Bear On The Loose at Rosehill recently. Bear On The Loose carries a “backed as if unbeatable” tag last start from Best Bets. Both look likely to progress to better races.

Early markets indicate Bear On The Loose will be the hottest Randwick favourite in the Toyota, but has to overcome a wide gate (drew 14) from the 1800 metre start with the rail awkwardly placed, nine metres from the 1600 metres to the winning post. However, the import will have the benefit of Nash Rawiller, a tantalising feature on the racecard menu.

Rawiller also handles South Of India, a top hope in the Schweizer, a second start after a spell victor at Scone on July 11, while Gitalong, vying for favouritism with him yesterday, faces the second up query. 

Ideas and systems change, but “odds-on, look on” is a firm personal choice and the major difference between a good gamble and the lay of the day? The odds.

Many follow the advice of Pittsburgh Phil, who dispersed racing guidance in United States. But the wisdom of Banjo Paterson is still worthy of consideration.

. Never back a horse with a bad rider on board.

(Who is bad, good and effective is a matter of opinion).

. Never back a horse out of condition.

(Which is where the second up aspect kicks in.)

. Never back a horse running out of his distance.

(“Course and distance” are effective pointers).

. Never back a horse running out of his class.

(Not as relevant today as it was.)

. Never back a bad beginner in the hope he may, for once, get away well.

(Don Diego De Vega began “awkwardly” last start).

“All these things, some more and some less, but all make a difference and in horse racing very little differences count a great deal,” – Paterson.

My assessments and the second up theory are considered in “Play The Exotics” and will mean the difference of being on the long end of a food market line or getting a Coles delivery.