Godolphin’s Final Call: Cummings’ Last Dance Before the Music Stops

“Racing bets are grounded in skill, knowledge and careful judgement … this isn’t reckless gambling, it’s thoughtful engagement with a historic sport that rewards patience and insight rather than impulsive risk taking,” Labor MP Dan Carden urging the British government not to legislate racing out of existence.

It’s a quote from a Robin Oakley piece in “The Spectator” that resonated considering the plight of Tim Hale and Carolyn Searcy who have just taken the reins of the Australian Turf Club.

Fuelled by trainers and jockeys, as good as ever, the events have been strong if lacking in effective promotion, outside The Everest, while racecourses Canterbury and Warwick Farm, once a hub of punting activity, are now close to derelict.

Thus the previous management under Peter McGauran wanted to sell the prized asset Rosehill Gardens for $5 billion. Other real estate disposal, say Canterbury, if possible, would not cover the required current needs and future deficits.

Racing worldwide, possibly with the exception of Hong Kong and Japan, is struggling but none more so than the United Kingdom where “the Treasury has instigated a study into amalgamating 15 percent General Betting Duty on racing bets with a 21 percent duty charged on online gambling”, regarded as a possible death knell.

“Warning signs have been piling up,” Oakley wrote. “Fewer foals are being bred. Prizemoney levels are in decline ….”

Australia, too, has a problem with foals, according to a Thoroughbred Fertility Crisis Executive Summary, prepared by Dr Kevin J. Doyle and Dr John Crowley, who reported:

• Australia’s thoroughbred fertility has collapsed to 59 percent …the lowest globally.

• 7984 foals failed to produce live foals in 2023 (67 percent increase from 2022).

• $160 million annual economic loss to the industry.

• International competitors maintain 80-85 percent fertility rates.

• Australia trails global leaders by 21–26 percentage points.

Sydney racing, with Saturday’s Royal Randwick menu, is an example of the current trend, acceptable if lacking a major event, or an off-season race promotion, like Caulfield in the south and even Adelaide’s Morphettville.

Caulfield has the Group three Bletchingly in which James Cummings holds a strong hand with Kallos, Inhibitions, and Kin, in his last attempt for a major as the general for Godolphin while Morphettville boasts the Listed Lightning Stakes, a clash of two-year-old against three-year-olds, on the program for 55 years with the outstanding Nature Strip on the honour roll.

The Lightning Stakes prizemoney is $120,000, hardly flash from the Sydney viewpoint where the best race, Thank You Trainers Handicap, only a Benchmark 88, is $160,000.

On the final Randwick Saturday for Godolphin Cummings could figure with Tarpaulen, the most promising type in the Thank You Trainers.

A still erratic three-year-old, Tarpaulen was fourth at $1.85 favourite behind Storm The Ramparts, when returning after a spell. The gelding began tardy, made a quick spurt in the straight and ran out of gas late.

With the benefit of that race, a subsequent barrier trial and Zac Lloyd navigating from the one gate he is fancied against the consistency of Joe Pride’s Storm The Ramparts and The Black Cloud who carries a “should’ve won” last start at Caulfield from Best Bets. The same could be deduced concerning another chance, Cigar Flick, who requires a good ride, upon which the result of the Bletchingly, like so many other events, depends, not LUCK.

Nine acceptors in what appears an even graded 1200 metre Bletchingly, Craig Williams can give Kin the edge. Kin was fifth, racing too keen, to In Flight, a Williams mount, last start in the Monash over the Caulfield 1100 metres. Pace aplenty looks assured on Saturday suitable for Kin’s big finish but stablemate, Inhibitions, isn’t lacking that attribute either.

“Insight”? In the Dan Carden mode?

Anyway, let’s attempt “careful judgement” for the Thank You Owners at Randwick.

Cameron Crockett, the astute Dubbo trainer, has two acceptors, Lonhro’s Queen and Durova, the fourth reserve, both around $15 on Friday. The last two attempts of Lonhro’s Queen look common, but she was beaten by lack of tempo, masking her finishing sprint: the fastest last 600 metres on the respected programs.

Alas she drew wide (18) on Saturday, seen as a negative but will get back with apprentice Will Stanley, applying a very handy three kilo allowance, making her attractively weighted.

Crockett picked up Durova from Ciaron Maher and the gelding recently beat a field of bush hacks at Dubbo for the new stable, but in a manner suggesting better races are within her scope.

Should Crockett get Durova into the field, by withdrawing Lonhro’s Queen, it will be pointer but both are strong chances.

That’s on “careful judgement”.

Hopefully it doesn’t leave the impression picking a winner with a pin is superior.