Despite the current trend of emerging great trainers, Chris Waller still reigns supreme and is a subject today with Dan O’Sullivan’s five tips for punting success.
Obviously Waller is the dominating force with Horse Of Year or season, Via Sistina, another to cement the claim he is the best ever for getting results with fillies and mares.
Via Sistina followed champion Winx, and Verry Elleegant. Autumn Glow is waiting in the wings.
Earlier in the season Ciaron Maher led him in the National Trainer’s Premiership but Waller’s latest tally was 149 to 123.5. In the Sydney title, against a very strong line-up, Waller rules on 72 to Bjorn Baker’s 27. If you can make it here you can make it anywhere.
Baker and Joe Pride (22) will be remembered with reverence although I will not compare them with the principals of the past. Training has changed. Prizemoney dominates. Once it was betting and odds.
Tommy Smith notched premierships and Bart Cummings was a master at target events. Waller features in both categories. But rarely, if ever, has an equine mentor produced consistency like Pride.
Baker, too, is a dab hand with developing and maintaining thoroughbreds. Consider his record in final events. Nobody comes near him.
With the modern turnover in horses, many getting traded on the internet. Baker and Pride feature, receiving some regarded as burnt out from other top stables and doing well with them.
Candlewick and Gatsby’s comes into the category and will have their first starts for Pride in the Schweppes at Royal Randwick on Saturday. On recent form Gatsby’s needs a tow track but Candlewick has been tuned for a first-up triumph.
Apart from Pride and Baker, the Archibalds with big numbers continue to impact while O’Shea and Carlton are having an excellent season. The Ciaron Maher army, with their vast operation and new world computerisation across multiple bases, including the lavish Bong Bong, should challenge Waller. Michael Freedman keeps the family name to the fore, doing well but will do better.
But Waller continues to flourish, a situation horse players seek but rarely attain.
However, Dan O’Sullivan, an opinion worth following, has produced five foundations for successful betting, now yuppied into trading. As president of the Punt Drunks Protective Associations, I offer my views on the O’Sullivan method, produced in full on the “Inside Running” elsewhere.
1 – Make Win Betting Your Foundation: If your aim is long-term profit, win betting should be your foundation. It’s the most straightforward and transparent market to analyse, and far more manageable from both a staking and psychological point of view. Exotics and multis look attractive because of the potential payouts, but the takeout is higher, and the true chance of collecting is far lower than most punters realise.
Punt-drunk Presnell: The common sense of O’Sullivan is overwhelming but a quadrella or big result gives a surge of satisfaction that winning figures at the end of the season doesn’t. Like drinking coffee without caffeine.
2 – Bet Value, Not Certainty: You don’t need supreme confidence on every bet. Accepting some uncertainty is often where value lies. A horse unproven at the distance, in the conditions, or coming off a flat last start doesn’t have to be a deal-breaker if the price compensates. Good betting means taking calculated gambles when unknowns exist.
Punt-drunk Presnell: The difference between a “lay of the day” or “sucker bet” is the odds. I lack O’Sullivan’s mathematical proficiency but there are jockeys and trainers you just don’t take a short price about.
3 – Prioritise Pace and Handy Runners: Horses that race on the speed or just off it consistently outperforms those settling well back. Over the past five years, single-figure chances more than three lengths off the lead at the 800m have returned a 24% loss on turnover, with those four lengths or more even worse. By contrast, runners within three lengths of the lead returned minus 3.6%, with leaders the most profitable performers. Simply avoiding horses you’re confident will settle well back is a powerful filter.
Punt – drunk Presnell: No argument here. Tommy Smith won 33 Sydney Premierships mainly with on pace horses. Waller, though, applies a different strategy.
4 – Favourites: A blanket bias against favourites is one of the quiet profit killers in betting. On average, the favourite’s price is closer to its true winning chance than any other runner, and market losses on turnover increase the further you move away from the top pick. resistance to profit. Good favourites deliver.
Punt-drunk Presnell: A.J. Bellanto, QC, the eminent legal mind and devout horse player, once said: “Max, I am a logical man and the favourite is the logical winner”. To which I applied: “It is also the logical dead-un”. Racing has changed. Tryers galore. Take O’Sullivan’s advice.
5 – Never be casual about Price: Price discipline is one of the most under rated edges in betting. Many punters do the hard work finding winners, then casually give that edge back by taking whatever price is easiest. Over time, that habit alone can turn a winning into losing.
Punt-drunk Presnell: How I miss the old betting ring. Running around looking for top odds from bookmakers. The rush, the push. The bustle to get your betting ticket with the scribble to indicate the bet had accepted. The disappointment when the bookie snarled: “It’s gone”. Do you get the same with morse coding on the mobile?
Alas O’Sullivan is taking a holiday break but those interested in the interpretation of a punt drunk, tune into Play the Exotics.
