Mainly great three-year-old fillies triumph in the Doncaster, and Sheza Alibi is a contender for the title on Saturday giving a quality lift to what is often Australia’s best race.
Without her the $5 million Group One sprint over the Royal Randwick metric mile would be strong but not exceptional.
Sure, it is the feature on the program, but not as good as the T.J. Smith, with our best sprinters headed by Jimmysstar, Joliestar and Tentyris, with the ATC Australian Derby, once the focal, a distant third.
Had the budding champion Autumn Glow opposed Sheza Alibi like the best in the good old but demanding days, it would have been long savoured but topliners now can earn as much, if not more, in less demanding set weight events.
Handicaps, giving other topliners kilos, demands what makes champions, but the 49kg, more of stabilizer than a burden, on Sheza Alibi makes the Doncaster look easy.
In my time four of the six three-year-old winners were outstanding: Sunline (1999), none superior, with 52kg. Emancipation, successful in 1983 made light of 54.5kg under Ron Quinton while Citius had to hump 54.5kg in 1966. The other two success of the vintage Magic Flute (1987) and Skating (1993) were good but not superior.
And what about Analie (1973)?
Quinton also handled Analie, prepared by the legendary Tommy Smith after a stint with Andy White down south, in the Sydney autumn.
“Analie won three Saturdays running, a fillies and mares race at Warwick Farm with 59.5 kilograms, then the Doncaster [1600m], carrying 49kg, and the next week the AJC Oaks [2400m] – travelled three wide all the way, bolting in by about five lengths,” Quinton told me for a piece in June, 1974.
Prior to the Doncaster Analie did not have Group credentials. Sheza Alibi has scored twice at Group Two and her success in the elite category, the Randwick Guineas, came after the Doncaster handicap was declared.
On paper Sheza Alibi looks a good thing. On the figures of the astute Daniel O’Sullivan, opining on “Inside Running”, she has “roughly a two and a half-length edge on the rest of the field”.
Still he warns that “settling position, race shape and luck in running, will all play a key role”.
Bookmakers listed Sheza Alibi at $2.10 on Friday. The Doncaster is not a race for short prices. Winx was the only odds-on favourite to win in the 160-year history. Sunline won at $2.10 in 1999.
Seventeen have attempted since with only one placegetter. None have been as good as Sheza Alibi.
But should the price be taken? I think she will win but every race is a gamble. I am too battle scarred to take such restricted odds in a Doncaster. “Luck in running”?
Had Sheza Alibi been ridden by Glen Boss applying his balls of steel nerve or Jim Cassidy with his devil may care pumping, I would go to the pay queue after supporting Sheza Alibi before the field had jumped. They would take control of the race.
However Jamie Melham, far more technical, handles brilliant but the 13 launch on what could be a dicey surface?
The odds entice me to Headley Grange ($18) based on Joe Pride factor and the possibility of the wet. A five-year-old gelding, Headley Grange doesn’t hit the eye as a Group One sprinter but his last start fifth in the George Ryder, usually a good Doncaster guide, was encouraging.
The trainer takes seasoned horses to another level. Beware, too, of improvement from stablemate Attica, flat last start but previously good, but Chris Waller should never be overlooked when it comes to target races.
Waller’s Autumn Boy looks safely held by Sheza Alibi but the trainer dropped blinkers from the three-year-old early in the campaign but will apply them for Saturday.
Incidentally Sheza Alibi could have been with Waller. Owner Fred Noffke was seeking a trainer for the filly and left messages with Waller and Peter Moody about taking her.
Moody rang back first, Noffke told Racing.com, but when Waller later returned the call, the owner was awestruck with him, too.
“I was surprised these important people were such humble people,” Noffke related.
Consider the predicament: Moody or Waller? With the Queenslander, he received a Bundy (the rum) delivery, sharp at first but leaving an inner glow like no other (the description of expert Rod Gallegos about the moonshine) while the New Zealander’s delivery is as smooth as a Central Otago pinot noir.
